October 2026

Site Comparison · Gyms & fitness centers

Fortitude Valley, South Brisbane and Chermside · 10 min by car

Tallowood & Hart · 14 Oct 2026

0.26
Fortitude Valley (AUD m/yr)
0.18
South Brisbane (AUD m/yr)
0.32
Chermside (AUD m/yr)
01

The sites, in order

Compare

The sites, in order

3 candidate sites for a new store in gyms & fitness centers, each weighed alone against the stores already there, within 10 min by car.

Chermside ranks first by capturing A$0.319M a year in net new spend from 178 competitors, ahead of Fortitude Valley at A$0.264M and South Brisbane at A$0.182M, counting residents only.

Site comparison
RankSitePopulationIncome indexResident spend (A$ M/yr)CompetitorsCaptured (A$ M/yr)Share of spendNet new (A$ M/yr)
1Chermside188,750114.469.251780.320.5%0.32
2Fortitude Valley314,598111.9112.333610.260.2%0.26
3South Brisbane272,270108.193.063250.180.2%0.18

Ranked by net new spend: what the site captures minus what it takes from your own stores. Shares from the K-Stra gravity model of the sector, no own stores given, so nothing is taken from them. Each site is weighed alone against the stores there today. Indices: 100 = national average. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Why this order
RankSiteNet new (A$ M/yr)Why
1Chermside0.32fewest competitors of the set (178 inside the catchment); highest income index of the set (114); smaller catchment: 188,750 residents, 31% below the median
2Fortitude Valley0.26largest resident spend of the set (A$112.3M a year within reach)
3South Brisbane0.18net new spend 43% below the best site

Ranked by net new spend. The reasons compare each site with the others of the set: the strengths that weigh most and, when there is one, a caution. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Candidate sites
Candidate sites
Coverage
Planned3
Catchment of each store

Where catchments overlap the colour builds up: those places share customers.

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

02

What each site would capture

Estimate

What each site would capture

The residents' spending on gyms & fitness centers each site would take from the stores already there, as a range, and the suburbs it comes from.

A typical gym in Chermside would capture A$0.319M a year (A$0.192M low to A$0.476M high), which is a minimum in city centres and tourist areas as visitors and workers are not counted.

Spend each site would capture
SiteMeasureLowCentralHigh
Fortitude ValleySpend captured (AUD m/yr)0.160.260.39
Fortitude ValleyShare of the residents' spend within reach (%)0.10.20.4
South BrisbaneSpend captured (AUD m/yr)0.110.180.27
South BrisbaneShare of the residents' spend within reach (%)0.10.20.3
ChermsideSpend captured (AUD m/yr)0.190.320.48
ChermsideShare of the residents' spend within reach (%)0.30.50.7

Low, central and high: a new store as attractive as the weakest quarter, a typical one and the strongest quarter of the 19,382 stores of the sector. It is the yearly spending of the residents of the catchment that the store would take from the stores already there (K-Stra gravity model of the sector), not its turnover: visitors and people who work in the area are not counted, so in city centres and tourist areas it is a minimum. No own stores given: nothing is taken from them, the net new spend equals the spend captured. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Assumptions. The estimate is the yearly spending of the residents of the catchment that a new store would take from the gyms & fitness centers already there (K-Stra gravity model of the sector), not its turnover. Low and high: a new store as attractive as the weakest and the strongest quarter of the gyms & fitness centers today. Visitors and people who work in the area are not counted: in city centres and tourist areas it is a minimum.

Where the spend comes from
SuburbFortitude Valley (A$ M/yr)South Brisbane (A$ M/yr)Chermside (A$ M/yr)
Chermside000.04
Aspley000.04
New Farm0.020.010
Bridgeman Downs000.03
Wavell Heights000.02
Newstead (Qld)0.0200
Zillmere000.02
Carseldine000.02
Kedron0.0100.02
South Brisbane00.020
75 other suburbs0.210.150.14
Total0.260.180.32

The spend each site would capture (central estimate), by the suburb where the residents live: the suburbs that give the most first, the others together. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

03

Shared catchments

Overlap

Shared catchments

How many residents two sites would share: what two stores opened together would split between them.

Opening both Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane would split a shared catchment, as 79.4% of South Brisbane's residents are within Fortitude Valley's catchment, whereas Chermside shares 3.6% with South Brisbane.

Population the sites share
SiteFortitude ValleySouth BrisbaneChermside
Fortitude Valley—68.7%20.9%
South Brisbane79.4%—3.6%
Chermside34.9%5.2%—

Share of the row site's residents who are also inside the column site's catchment: what two sites opened together would split. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

04

Fortitude Valley

314,598
Pop (n)
158,812
Males (n)
155,786
Females (n)

Site 1

Fortitude Valley

Who lives within a 10-minute drive of Fortitude Valley, and how much they spend.

Fortitude Valley's catchment has 314,598 residents with an income index of 111.9, above Queensland's 96.6 and Australia's 100, and consumption per capita of A$58,484 a year versus A$52,583 nationally.

Residents by band2024 · ABS
BandPopPop (%)DwellingsArea (km²)
0–10 min314,598100139,96292
Catchment314,598100139,96292

Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Compared with the areas around2024 · ABS
IndicatorCatchmentFortitude ValleyBrisbane LGAQueenslandAustralia
Population314,59810,9781,355,6405,583,83327,194,369
Area (km²)921.31,342.71,730,171.37,688,095
Population density (per km²)3,419.58,407.61,009.63.23.5
Population change, avg yearly (%)1.741.741.741.951.47
Families67,5311,985324,8331,366,6486,730,182
Residents per family4.665.534.174.094.04
Males (%)50.554.749.749.549.6
Females (%)49.545.350.350.550.4
Born overseas (%)28.237.129.220.925.9
Average age (years)36.834.937.839.739.8
Old-age index89.8134.180.995.398.1
Participation rate (%)58.368.451.446.246.6
Not in labour force (%)41.731.648.653.853.4
Unemployment rate (%)4.95.555.35.1
Income index (NIR)111.9104.8107.396.6100
Consumption index (NIC)111.2104.5106.896.8100

Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra Area: the surface of the catchment as drawn on the map. Population change: the average yearly change over the last eight years; for the catchment and the suburb, that of their LGAs, weighted by their residents. Old-age index: people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 0-14. Compared with the suburb, local government area and state where the location is, and Australia.

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Wealth indices2023 · ABS
IndicatorCatchmentAustraliaDifference
Income index (NIR)111.910011.9
Consumption index (NIC)111.210011.2
Consumption per capita (AUD/year)58,48452,5835,902

Source: income index from ABS Personal Income 2023 (tax data) where measured, a K-Stra estimate elsewhere; Australia = 100 · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Catchment
Catchment
Travel-time bands
Residents in each band
10 min314,598

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

05

South Brisbane

272,270
Pop (n)
137,872
Males (n)
134,398
Females (n)

Site 2

South Brisbane

Who lives within a 10-minute drive of South Brisbane, and how much they spend.

South Brisbane's catchment holds 272,270 residents with an income index of 108.1, above Queensland's 96.6 and Australia's 100, and consumption per capita of A$56,578 a year compared to A$52,583 nationally.

Residents by band2024 · ABS
BandPopPop (%)DwellingsArea (km²)
0–10 min272,270100121,24969.84
Catchment272,270100121,24969.84

Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Compared with the areas around2024 · ABS
IndicatorCatchmentSouth BrisbaneBrisbane LGAQueenslandAustralia
Population272,27015,6001,355,6405,583,83327,194,369
Area (km²)69.821,342.71,730,171.37,688,095
Population density (per km²)3,898.57,783.11,009.63.23.5
Population change, avg yearly (%)1.741.741.741.951.47
Families57,4202,852324,8331,366,6486,730,182
Residents per family4.745.474.174.094.04
Males (%)50.650.649.749.549.6
Females (%)49.449.450.350.550.4
Born overseas (%)29.945.429.220.925.9
Average age (years)36.433.337.839.739.8
Old-age index91.48180.995.398.1
Participation rate (%)58.553.651.446.246.6
Not in labour force (%)41.546.448.653.853.4
Unemployment rate (%)5.18.355.35.1
Income index (NIR)108.185.6107.396.6100
Consumption index (NIC)107.686.4106.896.8100

Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra Area: the surface of the catchment as drawn on the map. Population change: the average yearly change over the last eight years; for the catchment and the suburb, that of their LGAs, weighted by their residents. Old-age index: people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 0-14. Compared with the suburb, local government area and state where the location is, and Australia.

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Wealth indices2023 · ABS
IndicatorCatchmentAustraliaDifference
Income index (NIR)108.11008.1
Consumption index (NIC)107.61007.6
Consumption per capita (AUD/year)56,57852,5833,995

Source: income index from ABS Personal Income 2023 (tax data) where measured, a K-Stra estimate elsewhere; Australia = 100 · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Catchment
Catchment
Travel-time bands
Residents in each band
10 min272,270

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

06

Chermside

188,750
Pop (n)
92,231
Males (n)
96,519
Females (n)

Site 3

Chermside

Who lives within a 10-minute drive of Chermside, and how much they spend.

Chermside's catchment of 188,750 residents has an income index of 114.4, above Queensland's 96.6 and the national 100, with consumption per capita at A$59,713 a year versus Australia's A$52,583.

Residents by band2024 · ABS
BandPopPop (%)DwellingsArea (km²)
0–10 min188,75010074,48879.73
Catchment188,75010074,48879.73

Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Compared with the areas around2024 · ABS
IndicatorCatchmentChermsideBrisbane LGAQueenslandAustralia
Population188,75012,8791,355,6405,583,83327,194,369
Area (km²)79.741,342.71,730,171.37,688,095
Population density (per km²)2,367.43,232.81,009.63.23.5
Population change, avg yearly (%)1.741.741.741.951.47
Families45,6712,857324,8331,366,6486,730,182
Residents per family4.134.514.174.094.04
Males (%)48.947.149.749.549.6
Females (%)51.152.950.350.550.4
Born overseas (%)24.230.529.220.925.9
Average age (years)38.740.137.839.739.8
Old-age index94.9164.480.995.398.1
Participation rate (%)52.350.451.446.246.6
Not in labour force (%)47.749.648.653.853.4
Unemployment rate (%)4.5655.35.1
Income index (NIR)114.4101.5107.396.6100
Consumption index (NIC)113.6101.4106.896.8100

Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra Area: the surface of the catchment as drawn on the map. Population change: the average yearly change over the last eight years; for the catchment and the suburb, that of their LGAs, weighted by their residents. Old-age index: people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 0-14. Compared with the suburb, local government area and state where the location is, and Australia.

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Wealth indices2023 · ABS
IndicatorCatchmentAustraliaDifference
Income index (NIR)114.410014.4
Consumption index (NIC)113.610013.6
Consumption per capita (AUD/year)59,71352,5837,130

Source: income index from ABS Personal Income 2023 (tax data) where measured, a K-Stra estimate elsewhere; Australia = 100 · K-Stra

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

Catchment
Catchment
Travel-time bands
Residents in each band
10 min188,750

Data as of 14 Oct 2026

07

Conclusions

Conclusions

What it means

Chermside ranks first among the three sites, capturing an estimated A$0.319M a year in net new spend from 178 competitors. Fortitude Valley comes second at A$0.264M a year with 361 competitors, and South Brisbane is third at A$0.182M a year with 325 competitors. These figures count residents only and represent a minimum in inner-city areas where workers and visitors are not counted.

Strengths

  • Chermside faces 178 competitors in its catchment, the fewest of the three sites, and captures 0.5% of resident spend.
  • Chermside has an income index of 114.4, above the national average of 100 and Queensland's 96.6.
  • Fortitude Valley has the largest resident spend of the set at A$112.33M a year from 314,598 residents.
  • Chermside shares only 3.6% of its catchment population with South Brisbane and 34.9% with Fortitude Valley.

Risks

  • Chermside has a smaller catchment of 188,750 residents, which is 31% below the median of the set.
  • Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane face 361 and 325 competitors respectively, limiting their captured share to 0.2% of resident spend.
  • South Brisbane captures A$0.182M a year in net new spend, 43% below the top-ranked site.
  • Opening both South Brisbane and Fortitude Valley would split their market, as 79.4% of South Brisbane's catchment residents live within Fortitude Valley's catchment.

To check on site

  • Check parking availability and car access at the Chermside address, as the catchment is based on a 10-minute drive.
  • Observe daytime worker and visitor footfall in Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane, which is excluded from resident spend estimates.
  • Inspect the floor plate, ceiling height, and ventilation capacity of candidate premises for gym equipment and classes.
  • Verify the proximity, pricing, and format of the nearest competing gyms around the preferred site.

For a single gym opening, Chermside offers the highest resident spend capture, ranging from A$0.192M to A$0.476M a year depending on store attractiveness. Although its resident pool and total market of A$69.25M a year are smaller than the inner-city options, the lower number of competing gyms allows a typical venue to take a larger share.

If the strategy involves opening two locations, pairing Chermside with Fortitude Valley limits catchment overlap compared to pairing Fortitude Valley with South Brisbane. Because the model only counts residents, on-site checks in Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane should assess whether local office workers and visitors make up for their higher competition.

08

Glossary and notes

Travel-time bands: The areas that can be reached from a place within a given number of minutes (or kilometres) along the roads, by car, on foot or by bike: one band for each time or distance chosen.

Catchment: The people and the spending a store or a place can reach: everyone who lives within its travel-time bands.

Population: Residents from the official population estimate, spread over every address and added up inside each area: the figure of an area is the sum of its addresses.

Estimate: What one new store at the site would capture in a year of the residents' spending in its catchment, from the gravity model of the sector: low, central and high for a store as attractive as the weakest quarter, a typical one and the strongest quarter of the stores of the sector. Spending, not turnover: visitors and workers are not counted, so in city centres it is a minimum.

Gravity model: Each store attracts spending in proportion to its pull and less the farther away it is: a new opening captures the share its own pull represents against the pull of every store within reach.

Consumption per capita: The average yearly spending of one resident on that product or sector.

Income and consumption indices: How the income and the spending of the residents compare with the national average, set at 100: 120 means 20% above it, 80 means 20% below.

Dynamic: The figures are worked out again with the latest data every time the report is issued.

Sources

  • Residents by band: ABS, 2024
  • Compared with the areas around: ABS, 2024
  • Wealth indices: ABS, 2023
09

Thank you

Tallowood & Hart

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