Fortitude Valley, South Brisbane and Chermside · 10 min by car
Tallowood & Hart · 14 Oct 2026
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3 candidate sites for a new store in gyms & fitness centers, each weighed alone against the stores already there, within 10 min by car.
Chermside ranks first by capturing A$0.319M a year in net new spend from 178 competitors, ahead of Fortitude Valley at A$0.264M and South Brisbane at A$0.182M, counting residents only.
| Rank | Site | Population | Income index | Resident spend (A$ M/yr) | Competitors | Captured (A$ M/yr) | Share of spend | Net new (A$ M/yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chermside | 188,750 | 114.4 | 69.25 | 178 | 0.32 | 0.5% | 0.32 |
| 2 | Fortitude Valley | 314,598 | 111.9 | 112.33 | 361 | 0.26 | 0.2% | 0.26 |
| 3 | South Brisbane | 272,270 | 108.1 | 93.06 | 325 | 0.18 | 0.2% | 0.18 |
Ranked by net new spend: what the site captures minus what it takes from your own stores. Shares from the K-Stra gravity model of the sector, no own stores given, so nothing is taken from them. Each site is weighed alone against the stores there today. Indices: 100 = national average. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
| Rank | Site | Net new (A$ M/yr) | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chermside | 0.32 | fewest competitors of the set (178 inside the catchment); highest income index of the set (114); smaller catchment: 188,750 residents, 31% below the median |
| 2 | Fortitude Valley | 0.26 | largest resident spend of the set (A$112.3M a year within reach) |
| 3 | South Brisbane | 0.18 | net new spend 43% below the best site |
Ranked by net new spend. The reasons compare each site with the others of the set: the strengths that weigh most and, when there is one, a caution. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Where catchments overlap the colour builds up: those places share customers.
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Estimate
The residents' spending on gyms & fitness centers each site would take from the stores already there, as a range, and the suburbs it comes from.
A typical gym in Chermside would capture A$0.319M a year (A$0.192M low to A$0.476M high), which is a minimum in city centres and tourist areas as visitors and workers are not counted.
| Site | Measure | Low | Central | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortitude Valley | Spend captured (AUD m/yr) | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| Fortitude Valley | Share of the residents' spend within reach (%) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| South Brisbane | Spend captured (AUD m/yr) | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| South Brisbane | Share of the residents' spend within reach (%) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Chermside | Spend captured (AUD m/yr) | 0.19 | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| Chermside | Share of the residents' spend within reach (%) | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Low, central and high: a new store as attractive as the weakest quarter, a typical one and the strongest quarter of the 19,382 stores of the sector. It is the yearly spending of the residents of the catchment that the store would take from the stores already there (K-Stra gravity model of the sector), not its turnover: visitors and people who work in the area are not counted, so in city centres and tourist areas it is a minimum. No own stores given: nothing is taken from them, the net new spend equals the spend captured. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Assumptions. The estimate is the yearly spending of the residents of the catchment that a new store would take from the gyms & fitness centers already there (K-Stra gravity model of the sector), not its turnover. Low and high: a new store as attractive as the weakest and the strongest quarter of the gyms & fitness centers today. Visitors and people who work in the area are not counted: in city centres and tourist areas it is a minimum.
| Suburb | Fortitude Valley (A$ M/yr) | South Brisbane (A$ M/yr) | Chermside (A$ M/yr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chermside | 0 | 0 | 0.04 |
| Aspley | 0 | 0 | 0.04 |
| New Farm | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 |
| Bridgeman Downs | 0 | 0 | 0.03 |
| Wavell Heights | 0 | 0 | 0.02 |
| Newstead (Qld) | 0.02 | 0 | 0 |
| Zillmere | 0 | 0 | 0.02 |
| Carseldine | 0 | 0 | 0.02 |
| Kedron | 0.01 | 0 | 0.02 |
| South Brisbane | 0 | 0.02 | 0 |
| 75 other suburbs | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| Total | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.32 |
The spend each site would capture (central estimate), by the suburb where the residents live: the suburbs that give the most first, the others together. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Overlap
How many residents two sites would share: what two stores opened together would split between them.
Opening both Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane would split a shared catchment, as 79.4% of South Brisbane's residents are within Fortitude Valley's catchment, whereas Chermside shares 3.6% with South Brisbane.
| Site | Fortitude Valley | South Brisbane | Chermside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortitude Valley | — | 68.7% | 20.9% |
| South Brisbane | 79.4% | — | 3.6% |
| Chermside | 34.9% | 5.2% | — |
Share of the row site's residents who are also inside the column site's catchment: what two sites opened together would split. Source: ABS population 2024, third-party places data 2026 · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Site 1
Who lives within a 10-minute drive of Fortitude Valley, and how much they spend.
Fortitude Valley's catchment has 314,598 residents with an income index of 111.9, above Queensland's 96.6 and Australia's 100, and consumption per capita of A$58,484 a year versus A$52,583 nationally.
| Band | Pop | Pop (%) | Dwellings | Area (km²) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 min | 314,598 | 100 | 139,962 | 92 |
| Catchment | 314,598 | 100 | 139,962 | 92 |
Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
| Indicator | Catchment | Fortitude Valley | Brisbane LGA | Queensland | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 314,598 | 10,978 | 1,355,640 | 5,583,833 | 27,194,369 |
| Area (km²) | 92 | 1.3 | 1,342.7 | 1,730,171.3 | 7,688,095 |
| Population density (per km²) | 3,419.5 | 8,407.6 | 1,009.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Population change, avg yearly (%) | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.95 | 1.47 |
| Families | 67,531 | 1,985 | 324,833 | 1,366,648 | 6,730,182 |
| Residents per family | 4.66 | 5.53 | 4.17 | 4.09 | 4.04 |
| Males (%) | 50.5 | 54.7 | 49.7 | 49.5 | 49.6 |
| Females (%) | 49.5 | 45.3 | 50.3 | 50.5 | 50.4 |
| Born overseas (%) | 28.2 | 37.1 | 29.2 | 20.9 | 25.9 |
| Average age (years) | 36.8 | 34.9 | 37.8 | 39.7 | 39.8 |
| Old-age index | 89.8 | 134.1 | 80.9 | 95.3 | 98.1 |
| Participation rate (%) | 58.3 | 68.4 | 51.4 | 46.2 | 46.6 |
| Not in labour force (%) | 41.7 | 31.6 | 48.6 | 53.8 | 53.4 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| Income index (NIR) | 111.9 | 104.8 | 107.3 | 96.6 | 100 |
| Consumption index (NIC) | 111.2 | 104.5 | 106.8 | 96.8 | 100 |
Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra Area: the surface of the catchment as drawn on the map. Population change: the average yearly change over the last eight years; for the catchment and the suburb, that of their LGAs, weighted by their residents. Old-age index: people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 0-14. Compared with the suburb, local government area and state where the location is, and Australia.
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
| Indicator | Catchment | Australia | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income index (NIR) | 111.9 | 100 | 11.9 |
| Consumption index (NIC) | 111.2 | 100 | 11.2 |
| Consumption per capita (AUD/year) | 58,484 | 52,583 | 5,902 |
Source: income index from ABS Personal Income 2023 (tax data) where measured, a K-Stra estimate elsewhere; Australia = 100 · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Site 2
Who lives within a 10-minute drive of South Brisbane, and how much they spend.
South Brisbane's catchment holds 272,270 residents with an income index of 108.1, above Queensland's 96.6 and Australia's 100, and consumption per capita of A$56,578 a year compared to A$52,583 nationally.
| Band | Pop | Pop (%) | Dwellings | Area (km²) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 min | 272,270 | 100 | 121,249 | 69.84 |
| Catchment | 272,270 | 100 | 121,249 | 69.84 |
Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
| Indicator | Catchment | South Brisbane | Brisbane LGA | Queensland | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 272,270 | 15,600 | 1,355,640 | 5,583,833 | 27,194,369 |
| Area (km²) | 69.8 | 2 | 1,342.7 | 1,730,171.3 | 7,688,095 |
| Population density (per km²) | 3,898.5 | 7,783.1 | 1,009.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Population change, avg yearly (%) | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.95 | 1.47 |
| Families | 57,420 | 2,852 | 324,833 | 1,366,648 | 6,730,182 |
| Residents per family | 4.74 | 5.47 | 4.17 | 4.09 | 4.04 |
| Males (%) | 50.6 | 50.6 | 49.7 | 49.5 | 49.6 |
| Females (%) | 49.4 | 49.4 | 50.3 | 50.5 | 50.4 |
| Born overseas (%) | 29.9 | 45.4 | 29.2 | 20.9 | 25.9 |
| Average age (years) | 36.4 | 33.3 | 37.8 | 39.7 | 39.8 |
| Old-age index | 91.4 | 81 | 80.9 | 95.3 | 98.1 |
| Participation rate (%) | 58.5 | 53.6 | 51.4 | 46.2 | 46.6 |
| Not in labour force (%) | 41.5 | 46.4 | 48.6 | 53.8 | 53.4 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 5.1 | 8.3 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| Income index (NIR) | 108.1 | 85.6 | 107.3 | 96.6 | 100 |
| Consumption index (NIC) | 107.6 | 86.4 | 106.8 | 96.8 | 100 |
Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra Area: the surface of the catchment as drawn on the map. Population change: the average yearly change over the last eight years; for the catchment and the suburb, that of their LGAs, weighted by their residents. Old-age index: people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 0-14. Compared with the suburb, local government area and state where the location is, and Australia.
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
| Indicator | Catchment | Australia | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income index (NIR) | 108.1 | 100 | 8.1 |
| Consumption index (NIC) | 107.6 | 100 | 7.6 |
| Consumption per capita (AUD/year) | 56,578 | 52,583 | 3,995 |
Source: income index from ABS Personal Income 2023 (tax data) where measured, a K-Stra estimate elsewhere; Australia = 100 · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Site 3
Who lives within a 10-minute drive of Chermside, and how much they spend.
Chermside's catchment of 188,750 residents has an income index of 114.4, above Queensland's 96.6 and the national 100, with consumption per capita at A$59,713 a year versus Australia's A$52,583.
| Band | Pop | Pop (%) | Dwellings | Area (km²) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 min | 188,750 | 100 | 74,488 | 79.73 |
| Catchment | 188,750 | 100 | 74,488 | 79.73 |
Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
| Indicator | Catchment | Chermside | Brisbane LGA | Queensland | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 188,750 | 12,879 | 1,355,640 | 5,583,833 | 27,194,369 |
| Area (km²) | 79.7 | 4 | 1,342.7 | 1,730,171.3 | 7,688,095 |
| Population density (per km²) | 2,367.4 | 3,232.8 | 1,009.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Population change, avg yearly (%) | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.95 | 1.47 |
| Families | 45,671 | 2,857 | 324,833 | 1,366,648 | 6,730,182 |
| Residents per family | 4.13 | 4.51 | 4.17 | 4.09 | 4.04 |
| Males (%) | 48.9 | 47.1 | 49.7 | 49.5 | 49.6 |
| Females (%) | 51.1 | 52.9 | 50.3 | 50.5 | 50.4 |
| Born overseas (%) | 24.2 | 30.5 | 29.2 | 20.9 | 25.9 |
| Average age (years) | 38.7 | 40.1 | 37.8 | 39.7 | 39.8 |
| Old-age index | 94.9 | 164.4 | 80.9 | 95.3 | 98.1 |
| Participation rate (%) | 52.3 | 50.4 | 51.4 | 46.2 | 46.6 |
| Not in labour force (%) | 47.7 | 49.6 | 48.6 | 53.8 | 53.4 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 4.5 | 6 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| Income index (NIR) | 114.4 | 101.5 | 107.3 | 96.6 | 100 |
| Consumption index (NIC) | 113.6 | 101.4 | 106.8 | 96.8 | 100 |
Source: ABS — population, sex and age 2024 (annual estimates); the other figures Census 2021, shared out over the addresses so that each LGA keeps its official total · K-Stra Area: the surface of the catchment as drawn on the map. Population change: the average yearly change over the last eight years; for the catchment and the suburb, that of their LGAs, weighted by their residents. Old-age index: people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 0-14. Compared with the suburb, local government area and state where the location is, and Australia.
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
| Indicator | Catchment | Australia | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income index (NIR) | 114.4 | 100 | 14.4 |
| Consumption index (NIC) | 113.6 | 100 | 13.6 |
| Consumption per capita (AUD/year) | 59,713 | 52,583 | 7,130 |
Source: income index from ABS Personal Income 2023 (tax data) where measured, a K-Stra estimate elsewhere; Australia = 100 · K-Stra
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Data as of 14 Oct 2026
Conclusions
Chermside ranks first among the three sites, capturing an estimated A$0.319M a year in net new spend from 178 competitors. Fortitude Valley comes second at A$0.264M a year with 361 competitors, and South Brisbane is third at A$0.182M a year with 325 competitors. These figures count residents only and represent a minimum in inner-city areas where workers and visitors are not counted.
For a single gym opening, Chermside offers the highest resident spend capture, ranging from A$0.192M to A$0.476M a year depending on store attractiveness. Although its resident pool and total market of A$69.25M a year are smaller than the inner-city options, the lower number of competing gyms allows a typical venue to take a larger share.
If the strategy involves opening two locations, pairing Chermside with Fortitude Valley limits catchment overlap compared to pairing Fortitude Valley with South Brisbane. Because the model only counts residents, on-site checks in Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane should assess whether local office workers and visitors make up for their higher competition.
Travel-time bands: The areas that can be reached from a place within a given number of minutes (or kilometres) along the roads, by car, on foot or by bike: one band for each time or distance chosen.
Catchment: The people and the spending a store or a place can reach: everyone who lives within its travel-time bands.
Population: Residents from the official population estimate, spread over every address and added up inside each area: the figure of an area is the sum of its addresses.
Estimate: What one new store at the site would capture in a year of the residents' spending in its catchment, from the gravity model of the sector: low, central and high for a store as attractive as the weakest quarter, a typical one and the strongest quarter of the stores of the sector. Spending, not turnover: visitors and workers are not counted, so in city centres it is a minimum.
Gravity model: Each store attracts spending in proportion to its pull and less the farther away it is: a new opening captures the share its own pull represents against the pull of every store within reach.
Consumption per capita: The average yearly spending of one resident on that product or sector.
Income and consumption indices: How the income and the spending of the residents compare with the national average, set at 100: 120 means 20% above it, 80 means 20% below.
Dynamic: The figures are worked out again with the latest data every time the report is issued.
Tallowood & Hart